As someone
who knows very little about home loans, the popularity of the titular question
never fails to surprise me.
When this
question was asked again in the face book group, Asan Ideas for Wealth (AIFW),
I learnt something new. Here is an account of my understanding. I thank the
members of AIFW for their insight.
Sometime
back, on Subras request, Is it better to prepay home loan or invest for
retirement calculator and realized that unless one wishes to retire early,
there is no flaming hurry to pre-close a loan.
First let
look at this issue from both angles
Invest and let the loan run its
course
1. After all, salaries will increase and
inflation, which is comparable to home loan rate, will slowly, but surely
diminish the value of the EMI.
2. There are more obvious incentives to
continue the loan. Even if there is no tax benefit from the principal
component, since 80C is maxed out for most, the interest component is eligible
for a decent tax deduction. The tax save can make a difference if invested
3. Since the interest component is high
for the first half of the loan duration, it makes sense to let the loan run at
least for half the stipulated period and then pre-pay it.
4. Is it
better to prepay home loan due to investing now we will maximize the effect of
compounding. What if you cannot build a large enough corpus for retirement or
fund other goals?
Notice that all arguments are mathematical in
nature.
Prepay, close out the loan asap and
then invest
1. Why be in debt? Feels like a sword
hanging over the neck. I can’t think clearly. My parents are urging me to get
out asap.
2. Why not actually own the home asap
and then invest?
3. What if interest rates increase? I
have a high enough emi as it is!
Is the 3rd argument the only mathematical one?
·
Let
us now look at an imaginary but typical scenario.
·
Akash
is a 30 year old, married and with a 2 year old daughter.
·
Gross
annual income ~ 15.4 Lakhs. Annual growth 10%
·
Monthly
expenses ~ Rs. 40,000; Inflation 8%
·
Home
loan (self-occupied): 60 Lakhs; Rate: 10%; Tenure 20 year; EMI: Rs. 57,901;
·
Retirement
30 years away
·
Daughter
education 16 years away
·
Daughters
marriage 23 years away
·
Section
80C limit: 1 Lakh (home loan principle
is assumed to be not part of deduction)
·
Section
24(b) limit (home loan interest deduction): Rs. 1, 50,000
Akash has now obtained a lump sum of
Rs. 3 lakh. Should he invest it or use it for pre-paying?
For both
scenarios, we assume that
·
Akash
invests his salary after accounting for expenses, EMI, 80C deductions, tax. The
tax saved from section 24(b) is also invested.
·
Akash
continues such investing after the end of the loan up to retirement
·
The
investment is assumed to grow each year at the average rate of 10% and when the
need arises –daughters education 16 years later; wedding 23 years later –
redemptions are made from the same account.
·
Only
long term goals are considered.
Which is better? Investing or prepaying?
Have a look
and judge for yourselves. I am automating this Excel sheet so that inputs can
be varied at will.
If the lump
sum was pre-paid, Aksash will fall short of the corpus required for financial
independence. Please don’t argue, not by much! Remember the numbers used here
are imaginary. Until you punch in your own numbers, you will not know for sure.
Had he
invested the lump sum, he would have got a corpus much higher than that
required.
Had Akash,
postponed the purchased of the house, would have done much better? Perhaps -
shall include this option in the calculator to find out.
So which is better?
If we look only at the graph, investing
the lump sum is better.
Not because
he will fall short of the retirement corpus needed, but because it is not
practical to assume that future cash inflows will be used for investing! We
cannot be so sure about the future.
When you
have money, invest – right now! Do not assume you will invest from your higher
salary 5 years later. That may happen may not happen. Investing now, will get
time on your side.
Prepaying is not terrible!
Frequent
prepaying makes sense only when the EMI is very large – more than 50% of net
take-home pay. In such a case the person
will feel stifled and it makes sense to at least shorten the suffering. So
pre-paying in chunks, every few months does have an appeal.
When our
salary is accounted for completely by EMI, expenses and taxes, we cannot
·
Refill
our emergency fund if it is used!
·
Handle
unexpected recurring expenses
So even this
suggestion is mathematical and not just governed by emotions. So even the sword
above our neck feeling is grounded in math for those with high EMIs!